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In theory, shouldn't CTR and organic traffic be closely (if not almost exactly) correlated?

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Not necessarily as traffic can be 'direct' i.e. some one can come to the site by just typing in the URL, there are also situations were a refered visitor, can be read as direct by Google Analytics.

  • Sorry, let me clarify the question... done! – Baumr Jun 21 '13 at 18:08
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You're not totally off - since Google uses CTR as the one of the most important elements for determining changing rank for particular keywords - as your CTR grows, so will your organic traffic. That's why your meta tags and title tags as displayed in organic search are modified by Google; Google is trying to find the best display meta and title that increases your sites CTR.

  • Welcome to StackExchange, but not sure you understood my question — how can I clarify? – Baumr Jun 22 '13 at 13:49

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