Yesterday before I went to bed, I checked the Alexa ranking for my website and it was somewhere in the ~4 million but today when I woke up, it was back at what it used to be months ago which was 18 million. WTF? So when I first created the website, my Alexa ranking was 18 million then it dropped to 12 million then 7 million and yesterday it dropped to 4 million and today in the morning was back to 18 million. I mean nothing has changed from yesterday, everything is the same. I checked my Google Webmaster Tools and Google Analytics and there's nothing wrong.
Simple answer. Alexa is junk. Do not even look at it. Only for the most active sites will the Alexa number mean anything. Otherwise, it will be a misleading metric that should not be paid attention to.
The reason is that Alexa has to extrapolate their results based upon a self-selective group. Alexa says that it's toolbar users are diverse, however, clearly it is a self-selected group regardless - meaning that the data sample is provided by only those who would install the Alexa toolbar. In the statistics game, that is a disaster. Only random samples work. Even then, the larger the sample size the better. Think about it. Who installs the Alexa toolbar anymore? Especially when they get a new computer? The Alexa audience is becoming narrower as fewer people install the toolbar and those who do fit within a smaller group of those who would. It was a flawed system right from the start. At least from a statistics analysis point of view.
To that end, sites with less traffic have less sample data to make any clear indication. This is why Alexa varies so widely and hence why you should not pay attention to the metric at all.
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As covered by many other questions here, Alexa is useless and relies on users using their toolbar. You shouldn't pay attention to their data, it's irrelevant.