If the anchor text is
www.site1.example but the link actually directs to
www.random2.example, would link juice be passed in this instance to
I think this is subjective; I don't see how we can possibly know for sure whether a single link has benefited the target site in Google's algorithm.
On the face of it, so called "link juice" is passed to the target site (not necessarily the value of the
HREF attribute if there are additional redirects involved).
However, in this example, the anchor is clearly deceptive with the intention to mislead users. There is no good reason to do this. So, I think the question is really whether the search engines (Google) pick up on this deception. Google is likely to not look favourably on sites that try to deceive users, so I imagine this could even count against the site hosting the anchor. Users may also start to distrust the site if they pick up on this (I know I certainly would - classic "phishing" technique).